Two years after Top Gun: Maverick’s incredible box office success, it looks less and less likely that Tom Cruise will ever star in a bigger movie than the hit sequel. Viewers waited a long time for Top Gun: Maverick. 34 years after the original movie hit cinemas, viewers were prepared to finally see its sequel on the big screen in 2020. Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit and another two years were added to the multi-decade wait between franchise installments. The pressure on the sequel was immense, and it was reasonable to assume no movie could live up to its pre-release hype.
However, by the time Top Gun: Maverick’s ending rolled around, it was clear the Tom Cruise vehicle had done the impossible. Top Gun: Maverick was better than Top Gun, with more emotional depth, sharper action sequences, and a more streamlined story than its predecessor. It is hard to see how Top Gun 3’s story could hope to top the conflict between Gooster and Maverick, one that was strengthened by the sheer length of time between franchise outings. Cruise’s Maverick aged visibly between outings and this made Top Gun: Maverick a more poignant viewing experience than anticipated.
Top Gun: Maverick Is Likely To Remain Tom Cruise’s Biggest Movie Ever
The Top Gun Sequel Made $1.4 Billion Upon Its 2022 Release
Top Gun: Maverick’s critical success was reflected in its box office performance, with the movie becoming the biggest hit of Tom Cruise’s career. Top Gun: Maverick made a historically huge $1.4 billion at the box office, becoming the biggest hit of 2022 thanks to Avatar: The Way of Water’s December release date. While Top Gun: Maverick made Top Gun’s ending worse with its revelations about the franchise’s unstable protagonist, the sequel managed to outdo all of Cruise’s earlier successes at the box office in the process. Even the Mission: Impossible series, another historically successful franchise, couldn’t compete with it.
Top Gun: Maverick’s success could be attributed to several factors ranging from its early summer arrival to a lack of robust competition at the box office, to a growing desire among cinema goers to return to theaters. The immersive, intense action benefited from big-screen viewing, but Cruise’s status as one of a dwindling number of true A-list hitmakers also helped the sequel. However, the performance of his movies both before and after Top Gun: Maverick makes it clear that the sequel won’t be outdone anytime soon, and he may never be able to replicate its massive financial success.
Top Gun: Maverick Massively Outperformed 1986’s Original Top Gun
Top Gun Earned $357 Million
Before the sequel’s release, it seemed impossible that Top Gun: Maverick could hope to out-earn Top Gun. Top Gun made $357 million in 1986 which, although it may sound like a paltry sum, was a staggering amount of money at the time. Adjusted for inflation, this would have amounted to $924.4 million in 2022 (via CPIInflationCalculator). Since Cruise’s biggest movie before Top Gun: Maverick, Mission: Impossible —Fallout, earned only $791 million, this feat seemed almost impossible until Top Gun: Maverick arrived. Top Gun: Maverick not only outdid this number but ended up becoming one of the twelve highest-grossing movies of all time.
Regardless of Top Gun 3’s plot, it is hard to see how the sequel could not only repeat but outdo this historic success. Top Gun 3 would now need to earn over $1.4 billion to become Cruise’s biggest movie ever, meaning it would be among the 10 most successful movies in box office history (not adjusted for inflation). Until recently, it seemed as if Cruise’s other lucrative franchise, the Mission: Impossible movies, could have produced a sequel that would outdo Top Gun’s follow-up. However, 2023’s box office proved this isn’t necessarily true thanks to one unexpected under-performer.
Tom Cruise’s 2023 Sequel Proves His Box Office Dominance Isn’t Infallible
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Underperformed Badly
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One made only $567 million at the box office 14 months after the release of Top Gun: Maverick, proving that Cruise’s star power isn’t unassailable. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One’s box office performance would be impressive for most stars, but the movie’s massive budget and the franchise’s history complicated this. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One was one of the most expensive movies ever made and was expected to outperform its predecessors. 2018’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout made $791 million and its predecessor Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation made $688 million, so an upward trend appeared likely.
Cruise’s biggest hit was simply too successful.
The success of Cruise’s Top Gun and Mission: Impossible franchises seemed like a sure thing after Top Gun: Maverick’s incredible impact, so Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One’s underwhelming box office came as a surprise to many. This could bode badly for Top Gun 3 but, even if it doesn’t, it remains unlikely that the sequel could ever match Top Gun: Maverick’s success. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One would have been considered an undeniable success if it made $800 million, which is still $600 million less than Top Gun: Maverick. Cruise’s biggest hit was simply too successful.
Cruise’s Few Projects Make Another Huge Hit Less Likely
Cruise Has Only Made Movies Since Seven Movies 2015
The fact that Cruise makes so few movies is the main reason Top Gun: Maverick’s success is unlikely to be replicated, as the actor is simply less likely to enjoy another huge hit when he can rarely be seen in the multiplex. This ensures every Tom Cruise movie is a cultural event, but it comes at a cost. Cruise made only seven movies in the nine years between 2015 and 2024, and one was the regrettable 2017 flop The Mummy. Unlike busier actors, his refusal to prioritize quantity over quality makes him starring in a bigger hit than Top Gun: Maverick less likely.
Top Gun 3 Is Unlikely To Outdo Top Gun: Maverick’s Box Office Impact
Top Gun and Its Sequel’s 36-Year Gap Helped Top Gun: Maverick
Top Gun 3 almost certainly won’t out-earn Top Gun: Maverick for numerous reasons. For one thing, there won’t be a 36-year wait between movies to build hype. For another, Top Gun 3 will have a hard time expanding on Top Gun: Maverick’s self-contained story and the sequel may struggle without Iceman to ground Cruise’s cocky antihero. However, there is some hope left for the star’s attempts to outdo his own record. After all, until the release of Top Gun: Maverick, it seemed like Tom Cruise would never be able to match, let alone outdo, the success of the 1986 original.