Nymphia Wind, Plane Jane, and Sapphira Cristál are the show’s first top-three finishers since season 8, but who will take the crown?
A banana, a burger finger, and a bouncy breast plate walk into the RuPaul’s Drag Race season 16 finale…
There’s no kidding about the top-three finalists — Nymphia Wind, Plane Jane, and Sapphira Cristál — heading into Friday’s conclusion of one of the best seasons of Drag Race in recent years. From runway gags to lip-sync goopery, each of the three queens has proven that she’s worthy of a crown, but there can only be one winner. So, who will it be?
Ahead of Friday’s finale at 8 p.m. on MTV, see Entertainment Weekly’s predictions for which queen will be crowned the RuPaul’s Drag Race season 16 winner below.
Who will win RuPaul’s Drag Race season 16?
The case for Plane Jane
You can count on one long-nailed hand the number of RuPaul’s Drag Race contestants who’ve defied all attempts at classification. Tammie Brown orbited a planet of her own; America loved Jessica Wild and Yara Sofia as much as the former loved that drink (and the latter marched to the beat of her own bongo boobs and Pop-it-On). Enter Plane Jane, an apparent social experiment implemented by the U.S. government and armed with arresting good looks both in and out of drag (a recipe for fandom catnip) as well as an arsenal of shade that sharply divided fans and queens alike. Was Plane fun-mean the same way Mistress Isabelle Brooks was? Or was she simply too evil for her own good?
Initially, widespread fan reaction to her rotted Werk Room behavior (purposely ranking Nymphia’s brilliant talent show performance low on Rate-a-Queen? Kind of genius) suggested that Plane’s reputation might not survive the season; but, as things progressed and her Burger Finger pressed harder on Jan’s shade button, both her season 16 sisters (save for Amanda Tori Meating) and the Drag Race fans at home seemed to settle into the groove of her made-for-TV theatrics, and gave her more of a pass in later episodes. At some point, though, the persona might’ve overshadowed the talent in some viewers’ eyes. Not every Drag Race fan — including those who don’t live their lives inside the vacuum of social media — watching at home has the insight, knowledge, or understanding of drag culture’s foundation, or the real dynamic that goes on inside a closet-sized dressing room at a local bar, and might not fully grasp why Plane’s demeanor is so funny to so many. In their eyes, no matter what Plane sends down the runway or performs in a challenge (she has four overall wins to her name, the prowess is clear) she’ll always be the shadiest queen of the season. And, as Mistress Isabelle Brooks, Kandy Muse, The Vixen, and more can attest to, that’s a difficult hurdle — and often unfair label — for anyone to overcome (especially for queens of color).
Of course, digesting Plane’s personality was never an issue for RuPaul, who seemed to fall in love with the queen’s endearing absurdity from the moment she saw her lip-sync to Becky G’s “Shower” on episode 2. Plane even elicited the infamous “Mama Ru laughs herself into having a stroke for 15 consecutive minutes” reaction often reserved for one darling per season, so there’s clearly some well-deserved good will for Plane behind the scenes. However, Plane served the show as best she could; she made great television both via her artistry and her loose-canon mouth across every episode, but we’re not sure how much of a leg that gives her to stand on in the finale. Both Sapphira and Nymphia are performers in different ways, and if the finale is indeed a lip-sync duel, they could outshine the comedic approach Plane might employ in the matchups for the crown. And, in the end, we know Ru is often partial to a jaw-dropping dance versus a lip-sync-turned-comedic-sketch (just look at Megami vs. Morphine Love Dion during last week’s LaLaPaRuza.)
Regardless of her standing with the fans (her fan-vote numbers trail both Sapphira and Nymphia’s on Drag Race’s X account), Plane did what she supposedly set out to do: made Drag Race her-story as one of the most-talked-about contestants the show has ever seen. Whether you loved watching her compete or regularly filed a passenger report with the TSA that exists only in your head, Plane left her mark on the Drag Race runway and well beyond it — and now has the perfect narrative guiding her to a smooth landing on a future season of All Stars.
The case for Nymphia Wind
Name another queen whose total runway package approaches perfection the way Nymphia Wind’s does. We’ll wait — but not as long as we’ll be talking about the things Nymphia made in the Werk Room, for years to come. Her prowess as a designer redefined the template for excellence in Drag Race creation challenges, and her pre-made package proved that she has both taste and skill whether she’s making the look or curating and collaborating with others.
The Taiwan-raised stunner’s repertoire didn’t stop at the sewing machine, as her relatable vulnerability led to a few moving moments throughout the season, and her signature obsession with the color yellow (and, of course, bananas) gave her an instantly branded identity that’s worked in her favor ever since.
Nymphia’s biggest problem, though (which isn’t her fault) could also work to her advantage heading into the finale. With no recorded competitive lip-syncs on the season thus far, things could go one of two ways: she either lets us all down (unlikely) or she spectacularly capitalizes on the 16-episode buildup toward her ultimate lip-sync performance on the show’s last episode. Clearly, anticipation for the latter scenario is high. Nymphia is a proven performer (judging by videos available online), and, depending on the structure of the finale, she’ll hopefully be given more freedom to concoct a lip-sync performance of her own versus simply squaring off against her sisters (think more season 8 finale than season 9’s).
Also working for her is the fan vote. At the time of this article’s publication, Nymphia’s “like” counts on both the Drag Race official X (40,000) and Instagram (150,000) accounts overwhelmingly lead the totals posted for Plane and Sapphira. That hasn’t always translated to success (see Anetra vs. Sasha Colby last year) but it does give production a clear indication of the decision that would go over the best with at least the visible part of their fanbase (in essence, those who live their lives on social media). On the other hand, that also suggests that there’s strong enough support to build a solid foundation for Nymphia to stand on heading into a potential All Stars season. Sapphira’s arc feels more complete with a crown; Nymphia and Plane have a lot more to gain from an All Stars season, with clearer redemption narratives fueling them into a future placement on another star-studded cast versus Sapphira’s “Mother” storyline.
In the end, Nymphia’s already cemented herself as a Drag Race legend on looks alone; everything else she’s done (her book cover slay, her hilarious confessionals, her so-bad-it’s-kind-of-iconic Snatch Game) has made her a welcome talent on our screens this year. And, even if she doesn’t walk away with the gold, something tells us she’s perfectly fine luxuriating in banana-yellow — until All Stars 11, that is.
Projected RuPaul’s Drag Race season 16 winner: Sapphira Cristál
From the moment her hearty cackle clapped through the Werk Room on episode 1, Sapphira Cristál’s place on the Drag Race finale stage felt as pre-destined as Sasha Colby’s. Some queens just have that thing, that effortless Mother (important: capital M at all times) energy that makes it seem as if their undeniably difficult moves on the Main Stage (her bouncing Fisher-Price breast plate moment was instantly legendary) and emotional maneuvering amongst her sisters (Mother Sapphiror whipped the girls into shape with wisdom that didn’t register as either too cutting or strategic) feel like second nature.
The most natural evolution for Sapphira’s four-challenge-winning journey on Drag Race, then, feels like her ascension to the throne. All season, it was clear that fans, Mama Ru, and her season 16 sisters revered Sapphira as if she were a decades-seasoned fixture on the drag scene at large, not just on set. And, in many ways, that’s true, as she’s worked from New York to Philadelphia, rising to prominence via her six-octave vocal range and penchant for mixing high-camp performances with legitimate musical talents on stage. Sapphira translated those skills to Drag Race in ways that didn’t feel gimmicky throughout the season, doing justice to her raw talent while also conforming them to fit the challenges when necessary (the bathroom design challenge is a perfect example, as is the “Power” musical challenge that just became The Sapphira Show by virtue of her mere presence).
Even when Sapphira stumbled, she rose to the occasion with grace and poise, politely (yet unequivocally) destroying her competition during the penultimate competitive episode lip-sync against Q. Everything leading up to that moment points to a crown eventually resting on Sapphira’s head. Whether she’s giving lessons in confidence by the makeup mirror, helping a sister sew a dress, or casually flexing her wide range of performance skills in a maxi challenge (or, hell, a mini — four of which she’s won to date), Sapphira’s winner energy hasn’t registered as grabby, showy, or try-hard; Sapphira simply knows, feels, believes she’s a legend — and it’s time the show validates the sentiment with a $200,000 check written out to her (priceless) name.